2025's dividend and its bill: reasoning and agents everywhere, debt investors getting choosier
The year closed with a five-part retrospective from across the industry: reasoning models that went from prompted trick to default behavior, agentic coding tools displacing autocomplete-style completion, a talent market paying sports-money salaries, a data-center build-out measured in gigawatts, and China banning US-designed GPUs and TPUs to force domestic silicon. Read together, the year's capability gains and its capex commitments are the same story — the agents people now ship are what made trillion-dollar infrastructure plans legible to boards.
The bill arrived in the same week's news. On December 26 the New York Times reported that AI companies raising funds are being made to pay lofty interest rates as debt investors grow cautious, a shift from the earlier phase when AI-linked issuance cleared easily. That is the pendulum the year ends on: capability is no longer the scarce input, financing is.

WHY IT MATTERS
Reasoning-by-default and agentic coding are now baseline assumptions in model selection, so evaluating a model on chat quality alone misses what it does over dozens of tool calls. The credit market is the leading indicator to watch in 2026: if inference and training capital gets more expensive, expect more pressure toward smaller models, caching, and open weights you host yourself.